Giuseppe Orlando | University of Bari Aldo Moro
Abstract
This presentation examines the evolution and current challenges of catastrophe risk modeling, a discipline that emerged in the late 1980s following major events such as Hurricane Andrew and the Northridge earthquake, which revealed critical gaps in traditional risk assessment. In recent decades, the rising frequency and severity of climate-related disasters have outpaced legacy model assumptions, underscoring the need for more resilient and data-driven approaches. Persistent challenges in pricing and reserving—stemming from uncertainty in ultimate losses and reporting delays—continue to drive volatility in premiums, capital, and solvency measures. While actuarial reserving tools like the chain-ladder method remain essential for estimating incurred-but-not- reported claims, additional structure is required to capture tail risk and dynamic loss behavior. This presentation explores emerging strategies to enhance catastrophe modeling and strengthen financial resilience.
